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🚨 How a Government Shutdown Could Shake Up Mortgage Rates


 It’s déjà vu all over again: the U.S. could be heading into another government shutdown next week. What does that mean for your mortgage rate? Let’s break it down.

📊 Why the Jobs Report Matters

Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Employment Situation Report—better known as the “jobs report.”

  • This report is the single most important piece of economic data for mortgage rates.

  • Recently, the labor market (hiring, unemployment, wages) has been the main driver of interest rates, even more than inflation.

If the government shuts down, the BLS closes too—and that means no jobs report on Friday.

⏳ What Happens If It’s Delayed?

Without the jobs report, markets will be “flying blind” ✈️ and leaning on private data sources, like the ADP employment report (scheduled for Wednesday).

  • 📉 A strong jobs market usually pushes rates higher.

  • 📈 Weak job numbers can help bring rates down.

But if there’s no report, investors and lenders are left guessing—leading to extra rate volatility.

🏡 Where Rates Stand Right Now

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rates stayed steady this week, holding near last Friday’s levels.

  • Refinance applications hit a new long-term high (barely), thanks to last week’s dip in rates.

  • New home sales surged 📈, but that number is often volatile. Meanwhile, existing home sales (which make up the bulk of the market) are still near historic lows.

🗓️ What to Watch

  • Wednesday, 12:01 AM ET – we’ll know for sure whether a shutdown begins.

  • Wednesday (ADP Report) – could give markets some guidance if the BLS jobs report is canceled.

  • Friday (Jobs Report?) – if it happens, expect rates to react quickly.

💡 Bottom Line

Mortgage rates are walking a tightrope right now. The jobs report (or lack of it) could set the tone for the next few weeks. Whether you’re buying, selling, or refinancing, stay tuned—things could move fast. ⚡

________________________________________________________________________________

Whether buying, selling, or seeking valuable insights into the market, I'm here to be your trusted guide in the dynamic world of real estate. Feel free to contact me for a confidential discussion, where we can explore your goals, address any questions, and navigate the exciting path of real estate together. Your real estate journey is unique, and I am committed to providing personalized assistance tailored to your needs. Don't hesitate to connect. 


Dani | 734-623-9442 | dani@danihallsell.com
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