Mortgage rates had quite the party ๐ throughout June, dropping lower and making things more attractive for homebuyers ๐ and those looking to refinance ๐ธ. But just like every good party, this one came to an end when some stronger-than-expected economic data crashed the scene ๐.
When the economy looks strong ๐ช, mortgage rates tend to go up — and that’s exactly what happened. Rates jumped ๐ and stayed a bit elevated through early this week. But after that? Not much changed. Things mostly stayed flat ➖.
๐ค Why the Stall? No Big News This Week
Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by the bond market ๐ต, which often reacts to key economic data ๐. But this week, there wasn’t much of that. With no major reports to stir things up, rates just kind of hovered ๐ค.
There were some minor moves from things like trade news ๐ฐ, Federal Reserve comments ๐ฆ, and government bond sales ๐งพ, but nothing major. By the time the week wrapped up, rates were pretty much the same as they were on Tuesday ๐ .
๐ฅ What’s Next? Watch the Inflation Report
Next week could bring more action ⚡. On Tuesday, the government releases the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — a key report that shows whether inflation is heating up or cooling down ๐ก️.
Why does that matter? Because inflation is like kryptonite ๐งจ for bonds — and when bonds suffer, mortgage rates usually go up ๐. Also, if inflation starts rising because of new tariffs or supply chain issues ๐๐ฆ, it could keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates like many hope they will ✂️.
Here’s the big takeaway:
If inflation stays low ๐ง in next week’s report, expect mortgage rates to fall ⬇️. That’s because investors will start betting on rate cuts from the Fed sooner rather than later.
If inflation jumps higher ๐บ, mortgage rates could spike again.
✅ The Bottom Line
Right now, mortgage rates are taking a breather ๐, but that could change quickly. Tuesday’s inflation data has the power to shake things up ๐ช️. Whether you’re thinking of buying a home ๐ , refinancing ๐ฐ, or just keeping an eye on the market ๐ — next week will be one to watch ๐.
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